Launching today

Reckon

Launching today

The decision journal that helps you calibrate

94 followers

The decision journal that helps you calibrate

94 followers

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Most decisions feel resolved the moment you make them. Reckon keeps what hindsight erases: the prediction, the confidence, the reasoning. Check-ins capture what changes before the outcome: new info tagged positive or negative, confidence updated. At resolution you log what happened; weeks later it asks if you'd still make the call. A year in, you see where confidence overshoots, where it undershoots, where judgment is sharpest. iPhone and iPad. iCloud sync, no account. One-time purchase.

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Launch tags:iOS•Productivity•Quantified Self

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Framer AI AgentsDesign and publish professional sites with AI

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Continuum

Maker

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Hey Product Hunt, Roland here, maker of Reckon. I built this because I noticed the same thing keeps happening to me: I make a call, the outcome arrives a few weeks later, and by the time I remember what I had predicted, the story has already been re-written by hindsight. The version of me that hesitated, that wasn't sure, is gone, and with it anything I could have learned. A note app captures what happened. A journal captures how I felt. Neither captures what I predicted, or how confident I was before I knew. So I built the thing that does. Reckon is a decision journal where the moment of choice is the beginning, not the end. You log a prediction with a confidence percentage and a review date. Between then and resolution, check-ins capture what changed: new information tagged positive or negative, updated confidence. At resolution, you log the outcome and how satisfied you are. 30 to 60 days later, the app asks again: would you make this call again? Because satisfaction doesn't always align with "would I do it again". After enough decisions, calibration becomes something you can see: where your confidence overshoots outcomes, where it undershoots, which domains your judgment is sharp in. It's for anyone who has ever felt their judgment is good but couldn't prove it, or the contrary, doesn't have confidence in theirs and needs a history. Founders, parents, planners, investors, people who care about thinking clearly. Not pitched at the forecasting community, but legible to them. I would love your honest feedback! I'm especially curious if "calibration" makes sense for non-forecasters, or does the framing need to improve?

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12d ago

to answer your question directly - calibration absolutely makes sense outside forecasting, I just don't think most people would use that word for it. I screen early-stage startups fast, sometimes dozens a day, and the thing I never have is a record of how confident I actually was on a pass or a yes before I knew how it turned out. hindsight rewrites that instantly. the 30-60 day "would you still make this call" check-in is the part that sold me, that's the exact gap between a note app and a real record of judgment. one question - when the new info you tag as "positive" or "negative" mid-decision turns out to be irrelevant to the actual outcome, does that get factored into the calibration score at all, or does it just sit there as a log entry with no scoring consequence

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2h ago

Hey @rolandleth

Outcomes can be right for the wrong reasons, so tracking the reasoning & confidence feels way more useful than a normal decision journal.

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5h ago

Continuum

Maker

@yashekbote exactly what I thought of when I decided to build it.

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5h ago

Sounds really useful for PMs or directors, with the accountability it might help prevent hindsight bias and dumb principal problems. Really excited to test it next time I’m leading a team.

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5h ago

Continuum

Maker

@henryslang let me know how it goes!

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5h ago